The Utah Utes, ranked 14th, are gearing up for their season opener against the Florida Gators at Rice-Eccles Stadium this Thursday, and they are feeling confident about their chances. Last season, the Utes traveled to The Swamp for their opener, resulting in a closely contested 29-26 loss to the Gators. Now, they are determined to reverse the outcome in Salt Lake City. Despite their loss to Penn State in the Rose Bowl, Utah managed an impressive 10-4 record in 2022, marking their second consecutive 10-win season. They even secured the 10th spot in the AP poll. However, their star quarterback, Cameron Rising, suffered an ACL injury during that game, and his availability for this season opener remains uncertain.
On the flip side, the Florida Gators experienced their second consecutive losing season for the first time since 1979, concluding with a defeat to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl and resulting in a 6-7 record. In coach Billy Napier’s second season, they are introducing a new quarterback to the lineup, with Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz taking the reins from Anthony Richardson, who was the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft.
The kickoff for this Thursday’s game is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. According to the SportsLine consensus, the Utes are favored by 5.5 points in the latest Florida vs. Utah odds, with the over/under for total points set at 44.5. Before making any predictions or wagers for the Utah vs. Florida matchup, it is advisable to consult the college football insights and betting analysis provided by SportsLine’s trusted computer model.
Reasons Why Utah Football Could Cover the Spread
- Strong Home Advantage: Utah boasts one of the most formidable home-field advantages in the nation. In 2022, they averaged an impressive 46.7 points per game at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Furthermore, the Utes held a 5-1 record against the spread in home games and went 8-6 ATS overall. Their sole home loss in their past 24 games occurred against USC, and notably, this game took place without any fans in attendance.
- Dominance in Non-Conference Home Games: Utah has an outstanding record in non-conference home games, currently on a 28-game winning streak. This streak highlights their consistency and dominance when playing at home.
- Offensive Prowess: In the 2022 season, Utah’s offense averaged 457 yards per game, surpassing Florida’s average of 403 yards per game. The Utes also outscored the Gators, averaging 36 points per game while allowing just 22.5 points.
- Stellar Defensive Record: Over the past five seasons, Utah’s defense has maintained an impressive record, allowing an average of only 20 points per game. This marks the best defensive performance in the Pac-12 during this period. Additionally, they lead the conference with 163 sacks over the same span, including 38 sacks in the 2022 season, which tied for the eighth-most in FBS.
- Quarterback Depth: While star quarterback Cameron Rising is likely sidelined due to injury, Utah has capable replacements in Bryson Barnes, who has seen action in 13 games, and the talented sophomore Nate Johnson.
- Florida’s Road Struggles: The Florida Gators have historically faced challenges in road openers, with a record of 8-13 all-time. Furthermore, they struggled against ranked opponents in the previous season, going 1-5 in such matchups.
Reasons Why Florida Gators Football Could Cover the Spread
- Strong Recruitment and Depth: Despite losing key players to the NFL draft, including Anthony Richardson, Florida has maintained a strong recruitment program. They have also bolstered their roster with the addition of 13 players through the transfer portal. With four starters returning on both offense and defense, the team is well-equipped for the upcoming season. Additionally, 24 Gators gained valuable experience by making their collegiate debuts last season, which should contribute to their poise and readiness in 2023.
- Experienced Quarterback: Graham Mertz, the new starting quarterback for Florida, brings a wealth of experience to the team. He started 32 of the Badgers’ past 33 games during his time at Wisconsin, where he posted a 60% completion rate, threw 38 touchdown passes, and accumulated over 5,000 passing yards. Mertz’s experience and skill set make him a valuable asset for the Gators.
- Talented Supporting Cast: Mertz will be supported by a more talented group of players, including a potent running game. In 2022, Florida averaged an impressive 5.4 yards per carry, ranking 14th in FBS. The running back duo of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne is expected to be one of the most dangerous in the nation. Johnson rushed for 841 yards, while Etienne added 718 yards in the previous season, and together, they scored a total of 16 touchdowns. Etienne’s strong performance against Utah in last season’s opener, where he rushed for 64 yards on five carries, highlights the team’s running capabilities. In that game, the Gators rushed for 283 yards and averaged 7.2 yards per play.
- Historical Season Opener Success: The Florida Gators have an impressive track record in season openers, boasting a 30-1 record since 1990. This historical success in season openers suggests that the team is well-prepared to start the season on a winning note.